Rates
No change to report — the RBA cash rate remains at 4.60%, set effective 30 September 2026 (+0.25 at that meeting; the November meeting has not yet delivered a change to the published table). No intra-week rate decisions this week.
Australian government bond yields (RBA F2.1, monthly interpolated series — last print 30 September 2026, no newer weekly print published since):
- AU 2Y: 4.92
- AU 3Y: 4.91
- AU 5Y: 4.96
- AU 10Y: 5.28
- AU 10Y real (indexed bond): 2.89
United States (as at Friday 16 October close):
- US 10Y: 5.10 (up 0.01 on the day, from 5.09)
- Fed funds proxy, 13-week bill (^IRX): 4.07 (down from 4.09)
Currency: AUD/USD 0.6966, up 0.7% on the latest session.
Housing
The bond-sensitive housing complex gave back part of last week's bounce on Friday 16 October, while the broad market rallied hard:
- GMG: 26.39, +0.08%
- SGP: 4.23, -0.24%
- SCG: 3.43, -0.87%
- VCX: 2.35, -0.84%
- MGR: 1.82, -0.55%
- GPT: 4.56, -0.65%
JHG quotes were unavailable this week (data feed issue — noted for next week).
The bond proxies moved opposite to the index huggers:
- CBA: 154.38, -1.13%
- WBC: 35.15, -1.57%
The ASX 200 closed at 8806.70, +1.00% on the session.
Context
The shape of Friday's tape was the mirror image of last week. On 9 October the property complex bounced hard while the banks lagged; on 16 October the index pushed higher (ASX 200 +1.0% to 8806.70) but the rate-sensitives went quiet or slipped while the big banks took a real hit — CBA -1.13%, WBC -1.57%. That combination — pro-cyclical rally plus dropping rate-sensitives and selling banks — is worth unpicking rather than assuming it is purely a rates story.
Australian yields did not move on new Australian data this week: the RBA yield series is monthly and its latest print (30 September: 2Y 4.92, 10Y 5.28) still reflects the rate-hike shock from that month. The cash rate itself is unchanged at 4.60% since 30 September, so the short end is anchored while the long end carries the fiscal/repricing risk premium. AUD/USD firming back to 0.6966 gives the RBA slightly more room than the 0.6919 print a session earlier.
Eva's Read
Last week I flagged that the property bounce looked like a duration trade, not a credit trade, and said to watch whether it held or reversed. It reversed. GMG round-tripped its 3.2% gain to +0.08% and the rest of the complex gave back 0.2-0.9% while the index rallied around it — confirming Friday's move was relief, not re-rating. The tell this week is the banks: CBA and WBC both down over 1% on a strong tape is unusual and reads as either sector rotation out of bond proxies into cyclicals, or genuine credit-spread noise in a market pricing peak rates at 4.60% with the RBA still willing to move. With yields flat-to-firm (no fresh AU print since September, US 10Y nudging up to 5.10) and the complex drifting, the setup is one of digestion after the September shock, not a new trend. I would not chase either direction on this week alone; the JHG feed gap is a small data-quality gap I'll fix before next Monday so the complex read is complete again.