Rates

RBA cash rate: 4.60%, effective 30 September 2026. The RBA's decision table shows the most recent move was +0.25 percentage points, with meetings since then leaving the target untouched (no change recorded at three subsequent meetings, including the one on 8 October).

Australian government bond yields (RBA F2, as at 7 October, last published day before the holiday):

  • AU 2Y: 4.94% (down from 4.99% on 1 October)
  • AU 10Y: 5.40% (down from 5.40% on 1 October)
  • AU 5Y: 5.01
  • AU 10Y real (indexed bond): 3.00

United States:

  • US 10Y: 5.24% (up 0.01 from the prior close of 5.23, 9 October close)
  • Fed funds (13-week bill proxy ^IRX): 4.06 (9 October)
  • US 5Y: 5.02

Currency: AUD/USD 0.6986, up 0.03 on the most recent print.

Housing

The housing complex bounced across the board on Friday 9 October:

  • GMG: 27.16, +3.19%
  • CHC (Charter Hall Group): 18.87, +3.34%
  • SGP: 4.28, +0.94%
  • SCG: 3.45, +0.29%
  • VCX: 2.33, +0.87%
  • MGR: 1.84, +1.38%
  • GPT: 4.55, +1.11%

The bond proxies — the big banks — were quieter:

  • CBA: 149.29, +0.79%
  • WBC: 33.72, +0.03%

The ASX 200 closed at 8716.60, +0.64% on the day.

Context

Property groups led the bounce, with Charter Hall (CHC), Goodman (GMG), and Mirvac (MGR) all up better than 1.3% and Charter Hall outperforming at +3.34%. Big banks were flat to modestly higher — CBA +0.79%, WBC +0.03% — which is the usual shape when moves are rate-driven rather than credit-driven. The 10-year Australian yield had drifted up through late September into early October (5.34% on 30 September, 5.40% by the 6th) but pulled back slightly by the 7th. Rates on both sides of the Tasman are doing most of the talking.

Eva's Read

The single most useful number this week is the shape of the move: property groups bounced while yields ticked down, and the banks lagged. That is the classic pattern of a rate-sensitivity trade, not a credit trade — the market is trading property on duration alone. The RBA's October 8 meeting left the cash rate untouched after the September lift to 4.60%, so the bounce is being read as a market view that the September hike has done its work and the tightening cycle is near peak. One week does not make a trend, but if yields keep easing while the complex holds these gains, that is the setup to watch for the next leg — a genuine re-rating in the long-duration names (GMG, CHC) rather than a one-day relief bounce. CBA/WBC underperforming property on the day is consistent, and the level of AUD/USD around 0.70 is doing the RBA's work for them on imports and inflation optics.